All-in-all, it was a good week for investors as most indices closed out the week with gains.
Here, I comment upon just 2 subjects:
USA GDP for Q2/19:
• For 2018, the USA GDP growth figure was recently revised downwards to 2.5% YoY.
• For Q1/19 USA GDP growth was 3.1% QoQ or 2.7% YoY.
• For Q2/19 it declined to 2.1%. QoQ or 2.3% YoY.
• Was this a setback?
o Not according to the USA media which pointed to an ultra-pessimistic forecast of 1.8% QoQ and opined that the latest stats showed good economic growth in clearly exceeding this forecast (which was a figment of imagination not real).
o Where did the forecast come from?
Not the Fed – its forecast was 2.3%;
Not the Whitehouse – it forecast a much higher figure;
Not the IMF -it forecast a higher %;
Not the World Bank – ditto.
The media says it was a consensus of USA analysts (who had kept such forecast very quiet until Friday).
• So a decline of about 17% YoY in USA GDP growth (2.7% down to 2.3%) is treated as a success but for China a decline from 6.4% to 6.2% (i.e. 3%) was treated as a major setback.
France’s transaction tax proposal:
• It is good to hear that someone has at last formulated a system to fairly tax society which, because of clever accountinacy tricks, are able to avoid paying taxes to countries in which they do business and make money.
• Several countries have similar ideas but as most of the offenders are typical large influential American conglomerates, they have shied away for fear of reprisals.
• Will Macron take the plunge and cause French exports to the USA to be tariffed (as Trump has threatened)?
• One might relish the prospect of Starbucks paying taxes to countries where it sells its products. I still won’t drink its coffee as I prefer the small family run cafe along a back street where the proprietor does pay taxes.
That winds down the week. Last but not least, the best performing index was, once again, the MERVAL (up 4.54%). 2nd best was, once again, Athens (up 2.65).
The best preforming sub-index was USA Banking (up 3.79%).
The SET had a losing week so lost its claim to fame as the longest consective gaining index.
Next week there’s the long awaited Fed meeting, Sino/USA talks begin, more GDP Q2 stats, final PMIs, CPIs and finally NFPs. A busy week for news and markets. Plunge or watch?
Brazil’s has been through a bad spell and investments should be sold. I’ll comment upon other markets in my foreword for next week but it may be prudent to wait and see what the news brings. One thing is for sure, whatever the Fed decides will be severely criticized.